Commit ⋅ s-broda/ARCHModels.jl

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src/univariatearchmodel.jl changed.

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src/meanspecs.jl changed.

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src/general.jl changed.

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test/runtests.jl has changed.

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@@ -287,7 +287,7 @@

#dimensional array of the right type.
@inline function loglik!(ht::AbstractVector{T2}, lht::AbstractVector{T2},
                         zt::AbstractVector{T2}, at::AbstractVector{T2}, vs::Type{VS}, ::Type{SD}, meanspec::MS,
                         data::Vector{T1}, coefs::AbstractVector{T3}, subsetmask=trues(nparams(vs))
                         data::Vector{T1}, coefs::AbstractVector{T3}, subsetmask=trues(nparams(vs)), returnearly=false
                         ) where {VS<:UnivariateVolatilitySpec, SD<:StandardizedDistribution,
                                  MS<:MeanSpec, T1<:AbstractFloat, T2, T3
                                  }

@@ -295,13 +295,14 @@

	lowergarch, uppergarch = constraints(VS, T1)
	lowerdist, upperdist = constraints(SD, T1)
    lowermean, uppermean = constraints(MS, T1)
    all(lowerdist.<distcoefs.<upperdist) && all(lowermean.<meancoefs.<uppermean) && all(lowergarch[subsetmask].<garchcoefs[subsetmask].<uppergarch[subsetmask]) || return T2(-Inf)
	all_inbounds = all(lowerdist.<distcoefs.<upperdist) && all(lowermean.<meancoefs.<uppermean) && all(lowergarch[subsetmask].<garchcoefs[subsetmask].<uppergarch[subsetmask])
    returnearly && !all_inbounds && return T2(-Inf)
	garchcoefs .*= subsetmask
    T = length(data)
	r1 = presample(VS)
	r2 = presample(meanspec)
    r = max(r1, r2)
    T > r || error("Sample too small.")
    T - r > 0 || error("Sample too small.")
	ki = kernelinvariants(SD, distcoefs)
    @inbounds begin
        h0 = var(data) # could be moved outside

@@ -329,10 +330,11 @@

        end#for
    end#inbounds
    LL += T*logconst(SD, distcoefs)
	return all_inbounds ? LL : T2(-Inf)
end#function

function loglik(spec::Type{VS}, dist::Type{SD}, meanspec::MS,
                   data::Vector{<:AbstractFloat}, coefs::AbstractVector{T2}, subsetmask=trues(nparams(spec))
                   data::Vector{<:AbstractFloat}, coefs::AbstractVector{T2}, subsetmask=trues(nparams(spec)), returnearly=false
                   ) where {VS<:UnivariateVolatilitySpec, SD<:StandardizedDistribution,
                            MS<:MeanSpec, T2
                            }

@@ -342,7 +344,7 @@

    lht = CircularBuffer{T2}(r)
    zt = CircularBuffer{T2}(r)
	at = CircularBuffer{T2}(r)
    loglik!(ht, lht, zt, at, spec, dist, meanspec, data, coefs, subsetmask)
    loglik!(ht, lht, zt, at, spec, dist, meanspec, data, coefs, subsetmask, returnearly)

end


@@ -375,7 +377,7 @@

              ) where {VS<:UnivariateVolatilitySpec, SD<:StandardizedDistribution,
                       MS<:MeanSpec, T<:AbstractFloat
                       }
    obj = x -> -loglik(VS, SD, meanspec, data, x)
    obj = x -> -loglik(VS, SD, meanspec, data, x, trues(length(garchcoefs)), true)
    coefs = vcat(garchcoefs, distcoefs, meancoefs)
    res = optimize(obj, coefs, algorithm; autodiff=autodiff, kwargs...)
    coefs .= Optim.minimizer(res)

@@ -458,7 +460,7 @@

	distcoefs = startingvals(SD, data)
    meancoefs = startingvals(ms, data)

	obj = x -> -loglik(VS_large, SD, ms, data, x, mask)
	obj = x -> -loglik(VS_large, SD, ms, data, x, mask, true)
    coefs = vcat(garchcoefs, distcoefs, meancoefs)
    res = optimize(obj, coefs, algorithm; autodiff=autodiff, kwargs...)
    coefs .= Optim.minimizer(res)

@@ -511,7 +513,7 @@

- `algorithm=BFGS(), autodiff=:forward, kwargs...`: passed on to the optimizer.

# Example
```jldoctest
```
julia> selectmodel(EGARCH, BG96)

EGARCH{1, 1, 2} model with Gaussian errors, T=1974.

@@ -171,7 +171,7 @@

    return lower, upper
end

function startingvals(::ARMA{p, q, T}, data::Vector{T})  where {p, q, T<:AbstractFloat}
function startingvals(mod::ARMA{p, q, T}, data::Vector{T})  where {p, q, T<:AbstractFloat}
    N = length(data)
    X = Matrix{T}(undef, N-p, p+1)
    X[:, 1] .= T(1)

@@ -179,6 +179,9 @@

179	179		X[:, i+1] .= data[p-i+1:N-i]
180	180		end
181	181		phi = X \ data[p+1:end]
	182	+	lower, upper = constraints(ARMA{p, q}, T)
	183	+	phi[2:end] .= max.(phi[2:end], lower[2:p+1]*.99)
	184	+	phi[2:end] .= min.(phi[2:end], upper[2:p+1]*.99)
182	185		return T[phi..., zeros(T, q)...]
183	186		end
184	187

@@ -44,7 +44,7 @@

    Ji = try
        inv(J)
    catch e
        if e isa LinearAlgebra.SingularException
        if e in [LinearAlgebra.SingularException, LinearAlgebra.LAPACKException(1)]
            @warn "Fisher information is singular; vcov matrix is inaccurate."
            pinv(J)
        else

Files		•	•	•	Coverage
src	1,196	1,189	0	7	99.41%
Project Totals (12 files)	1,196	1,189	0	7	99.41%

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287	287		#dimensional array of the right type.
288	288		@inline function loglik!(ht::AbstractVector{T2}, lht::AbstractVector{T2},
289	289		zt::AbstractVector{T2}, at::AbstractVector{T2}, vs::Type{VS}, ::Type{SD}, meanspec::MS,
290		-	data::Vector{T1}, coefs::AbstractVector{T3}, subsetmask=trues(nparams(vs))
	290	+	data::Vector{T1}, coefs::AbstractVector{T3}, subsetmask=trues(nparams(vs)), returnearly=false
291	291		) where {VS<:UnivariateVolatilitySpec, SD<:StandardizedDistribution,
292	292		MS<:MeanSpec, T1<:AbstractFloat, T2, T3
293	293		}

295	295		lowergarch, uppergarch = constraints(VS, T1)
296	296		lowerdist, upperdist = constraints(SD, T1)
297	297		lowermean, uppermean = constraints(MS, T1)
298		-	all(lowerdist.<distcoefs.<upperdist) && all(lowermean.<meancoefs.<uppermean) && all(lowergarch[subsetmask].<garchcoefs[subsetmask].<uppergarch[subsetmask]) \|\| return T2(-Inf)
	298	+	all_inbounds = all(lowerdist.<distcoefs.<upperdist) && all(lowermean.<meancoefs.<uppermean) && all(lowergarch[subsetmask].<garchcoefs[subsetmask].<uppergarch[subsetmask])
	299	+	returnearly && !all_inbounds && return T2(-Inf)
299	300		garchcoefs .*= subsetmask
300	301		T = length(data)
301	302		r1 = presample(VS)
302	303		r2 = presample(meanspec)
303	304		r = max(r1, r2)
304		-	T > r \|\| error("Sample too small.")
	305	+	T - r > 0 \|\| error("Sample too small.")
305	306		ki = kernelinvariants(SD, distcoefs)
306	307		@inbounds begin
307	308		h0 = var(data) # could be moved outside

329	330		end#for
330	331		end#inbounds
331	332		LL += T*logconst(SD, distcoefs)
	333	+	return all_inbounds ? LL : T2(-Inf)
332	334		end#function
333	335
334	336		function loglik(spec::Type{VS}, dist::Type{SD}, meanspec::MS,
335		-	data::Vector{<:AbstractFloat}, coefs::AbstractVector{T2}, subsetmask=trues(nparams(spec))
	337	+	data::Vector{<:AbstractFloat}, coefs::AbstractVector{T2}, subsetmask=trues(nparams(spec)), returnearly=false
336	338		) where {VS<:UnivariateVolatilitySpec, SD<:StandardizedDistribution,
337	339		MS<:MeanSpec, T2
338	340		}

342	344		lht = CircularBuffer{T2}(r)
343	345		zt = CircularBuffer{T2}(r)
344	346		at = CircularBuffer{T2}(r)
345		-	loglik!(ht, lht, zt, at, spec, dist, meanspec, data, coefs, subsetmask)
	347	+	loglik!(ht, lht, zt, at, spec, dist, meanspec, data, coefs, subsetmask, returnearly)
346	348
347	349		end
348	350

375	377		) where {VS<:UnivariateVolatilitySpec, SD<:StandardizedDistribution,
376	378		MS<:MeanSpec, T<:AbstractFloat
377	379		}
378		-	obj = x -> -loglik(VS, SD, meanspec, data, x)
	380	+	obj = x -> -loglik(VS, SD, meanspec, data, x, trues(length(garchcoefs)), true)
379	381		coefs = vcat(garchcoefs, distcoefs, meancoefs)
380	382		res = optimize(obj, coefs, algorithm; autodiff=autodiff, kwargs...)
381	383		coefs .= Optim.minimizer(res)

458	460		distcoefs = startingvals(SD, data)
459	461		meancoefs = startingvals(ms, data)
460	462
461		-	obj = x -> -loglik(VS_large, SD, ms, data, x, mask)
	463	+	obj = x -> -loglik(VS_large, SD, ms, data, x, mask, true)
462	464		coefs = vcat(garchcoefs, distcoefs, meancoefs)
463	465		res = optimize(obj, coefs, algorithm; autodiff=autodiff, kwargs...)
464	466		coefs .= Optim.minimizer(res)

511	513		- `algorithm=BFGS(), autodiff=:forward, kwargs...`: passed on to the optimizer.
512	514
513	515		# Example
514		-	```jldoctest
	516	+	```
515	517		julia> selectmodel(EGARCH, BG96)
516	518
517	519		EGARCH{1, 1, 2} model with Gaussian errors, T=1974.

171	171		return lower, upper
172	172		end
173	173
174		-	function startingvals(::ARMA{p, q, T}, data::Vector{T}) where {p, q, T<:AbstractFloat}
	174	+	function startingvals(mod::ARMA{p, q, T}, data::Vector{T}) where {p, q, T<:AbstractFloat}
175	175		N = length(data)
176	176		X = Matrix{T}(undef, N-p, p+1)
177	177		X[:, 1] .= T(1)

44	44		Ji = try
45	45		inv(J)
46	46		catch e
47		-	if e isa LinearAlgebra.SingularException
	47	+	if e in [LinearAlgebra.SingularException, LinearAlgebra.LAPACKException(1)]
48	48		@warn "Fisher information is singular; vcov matrix is inaccurate."
49	49		pinv(J)
50	50		else

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